Why High Performance Doesn’t Always Predict Great Leadership
We’ve all seen it: your best engineer becomes a struggling manager. Companies keep promoting high performers into roles they’re not prepared for. There’s a better way.
We’ve all seen it: Your best engineer becomes a struggling manager. Your top salesperson loses their spark once they supervise others. Your star analyst gets promoted… and the team slips.
This isn’t bad luck – it’s a painfully common and predictable pattern. Companies keep promoting high performers into roles they’re not prepared for.
A major study in the Quarterly Journal of Economics analyzed 131 firms and found that doubling a salesperson’s performance boosted promotion odds by approximately 14%, but high individual performance predicted weaker team performance once they became managers.
Before promoting your next high performer, evaluate based on the 3 Cs:
Capability. Can they influence without authority? Think big picture? Coach instead of “do”?
Commitment. Do they want to lead people? Not everyone does, and that’s okay.
Chemistry. Do they elevate the team? Create psychological safety? Stay steady under pressure?
The Hard Truth. Sometimes your best performer should stay an individual contributor, and be rewarded for it. Technical leadership does not equal people leadership. Top companies are moving from traditional ladders to dual career tracks: one for advancing the craft and one for leading people. Both paths are essential. Both deserve respect. Both require investment before the promotion – not just after the damage.
What’s the biggest sign you look for in a future leader?
